Unit 7: Probability and Simulations
In this unit students will study probability. They will also learn how to run some basic simulations in Microsoft Excel and explore some fun problems like the Layoffs Problem and the 100 Years Flood Problem.
Prerequisite Material: Computer and Microsoft Excel (Google sheets) skills from Unit 6.
Approximately 15 Days needed
Prerequisite Material: Computer and Microsoft Excel (Google sheets) skills from Unit 6.
Approximately 15 Days needed
7.1: Relative Frequency and Probability
Lesson Resources
| Lesson 7.1 Guided Notes (Word) |
| Lesson 7.1 Guided Notes (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.1 (Word) |
| Problem Set 7.1 (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.1 Solutions |
7.2: Introduction to Probability
Lesson Resources
| Lesson 7.2 Guided Notes (Word) |
| Lesson 7.2 Guided Notes (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.2 (Word) |
| Problem Set 7.2 (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.2 Solutions |
7.1 - 2 Review and Enrich Activity and 7.3 Introduction
In this activity students revisit the Titanic Data from Problem Set 1 to review relative frequency/probability and get a taste of conditional probability. They are then asked to write a persuasive argument as to what group was given priority in boarding the lifeboats. Students are encouraged to use their comparative statistics from Unit 1 to strengthen their justifications. Next, students are asked scaffolded questions that lead to discovery of the probability of union and intersection of events. Typically Exercises 1 and 2 take a 45 minute class period (depending on how many groups are presenting). I will then assign Exercises 3 and 4 for homework and give students 10 minutes at the beginning of the next class to compare their work and finish with a 10 minute class discussion. Whatever time is left is given to the 7.3 Introduction activity.
| 7.1 - 2 Review and Enrich Activity (Word) |
| 7.1 - 2 Review and Enrich Activity (PDF) |
| 7.3 Union and Intersection Intro Activity (Word) |
| 7.3 Union and Intersection Intro Activity (PDF) |
7.3: More Probability: Independent/Dependent Events, Union and Intersection
Lesson Resources
| Lesson 7.3 Guided Notes (Word) |
| Lesson 7.3 Guided Notes (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.3 (Word) |
| Problem Set 7.3 (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.3 Solutions |
Activities and Extra Resources
| 7.1 - 3 Check for Understanding (Word) |
| 7.1 - 3 Check for Understanding (PDF) |
7.1 - 3 Alternative Lessons
Lesson 7.1 Video
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| 7.1 Video Guided Notes (PDF) |
Lesson 7.2 Video
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Lesson 7.3 Video
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7.4: Simulations using Excel and Relative Frequency Distributions
Lesson Resources
| Lesson 7.4 Guided Notes PDF |
| Lesson 7.4 Complete (XLS) |
Activities and Extra Resources
100 Year Flood Activity
| 100 Year Flood NPR Article (Word) |
| 110 year flood (PPT) |
| 100 Year Flood Complete (XLS) |
Lesson 7.4 Video |
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Simulations Project/Layoffs Project
In this project students are grouped randomly in groups of two. They are given one 45 minute class period to work on their simulation design. They are given an additional 45 minute class period to work on their presentation. Students present in front of me only during one of our 85 minute block periods. The rest of the students are asked to find a quiet place to work in one of our study areas and report to the classroom at their scheduled time for their presentation. Given that this was so late in the year, students had their exam review materials to work on while they waited.
| WORD DOCUMENT - PROJECT/PRESENTATION ASSIGNMENT AND RUBRIC |
Note: I have yet to have a group of students build a simulation that accounts for replacement (with the examples below technically the same person could get fired multiple times. However, given the time constraint of the assignment and the rubric I do believe it is quality work that allows us to further explore the theory of probability and discover a more appropriate simulation.
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Student Work Sample - Powerpoint Presentation
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Student Work Sample - Excel Simulation File
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Simulation Solutions Demonstration (Nils Ahbel)
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7.5 Counting Principles, Permutations, and Combinations
Lesson Resources
| Lesson 7.5 Guided Notes (Word) |
| Lesson 7.5 Guided Notes (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.5 (Word) |
| Problem Set 7.5 (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.5 Solutions |
7.6 Pascal's Triangle and the Binomial Distribution
Lesson Resources
| Lesson 7.6 Guided Notes (Word) |
| Lesson 7.6 Guided Notes (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.6 (PDF) |
| Problem Set 7.6 Solutions |
Additional Resources
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Problem Sets by Nils Ahbel - they are labeled Unit 8 in his materials instead of Unit 7
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Problem Set Solutions
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